Young voter trends have been a fascination of mine since the Obama-McCain bloodbath of 2008. Since then, I've been
building a case that Obama's landslide among Millenials would not translate into lifelong Leftism for an entire generation.
Virginia offers a hopeful example along these lines. In 2008, voters 18-29 in Virginia backed Obama over McCain by 21 points. One year later, the same demographic supported conservative Republican Bob McDonnell by ten points. In total, a 31-point swing.
Last week, the
New York Times ran a piece describing younger voters' disenchantment with the Democratic Party. Their lede told the story:
The college vote is up for grabs this year — to an extent that would have seemed unlikely two years ago, when a generation of young people seemed to swoon over Barack Obama.
As we approach the midterm elections, some polls vindicate the
Times' report. We recently noted Kentucky Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul's
enormous lead among the youngest age bracket, and a recent survey in liberal California offers some welcome news for one Republican statewide office-seeker--but sobering data for another.
Survey USA's poll of California voters conducted in late August and early September reveals a 7-point lead for Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman over Democrat Jerry Brown, and a narrow 2-point advantage for the GOP's Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina over incumbent Barbara Boxer.
Delving into the
survey's internals, Whitman and Fiorina track fairly closely among all age demographics except one: 18-34 year-olds. In the Governor contest, Brown holds a statistically insignificant 3-point edge over Whitman among young voters, whereas Boxer is dominating the same group by 24 points.
Why?
I asked California Republican Party Vice Chairman Jon Fleischman--who also operates the popular
Flash Report blog--about the disparity, and he said it boils down to two related factors: Outreach and money. "Meg Whitman has spent a huge amount of money on ads and other forms of voter contacts," he explained, "so she's been able to define herself and her candidacy forcefully and on her terms. Carly doesn't